The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget’s annually required 5-year financial projection “Illinois Economic and Fiscal Policy Report,” released 11/9/21, contains generally good news for the state budget (compared to earlier dire projections).
For the current fiscal year ending on 6/30/22 (FY22), GOMB revised projected revenue upward, from $42.4B to $44.1B, which some analysts think is conservative and that the total will end up being higher than $44.1B. For FY23, GOMB is projecting a $1.5B increase over the originally enacted FY22 baseline, which is still $250 million less than the final FY22 projection of $44.1B above. In other words, FY23 still has a deficit, but the deficit is expected to be smaller (-$406M) than they thought it would be in 2019 (-$2.9B). Likewise, the FY24 shortfall was reduced from -$3.2B to -$820M. These projections remain concerning, as the structural deficit and large pension liability persist, but the situation has improved. The bill backlog is also better than recent years, with the payment cycle under 30 days.
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